El Niño is now firmly established, with the tropical Pacific ocean and atmosphere increasingly reinforcing one another. NOAA reports a 97 percent chance that the event will continue into early spring 2027 and an 81 percent chance that it will become very strong during October through December 2026.
The report reviews both historical years, and current conditions across the Pacific, including severe flooding in Chile, rapid warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, above-normal tropical cyclone outlooks in the eastern and central Pacific, and significant typhoon impacts in the Mariana Islands. It also examines increasing drought, water-supply, agricultural, and wildfire concerns in Australia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea. SSCA members find full report in SSCA Forum posts and via their email.